Use this page like a quick reference: what each report measures, what “bullish vs bearish” usually means, and how the Fed balancing inflation + jobs can change interest rates, growth, and market mood.
Growth reports (PMI, payrolls, retail sales): stronger = often risk-on.
Inflation reports (CPI, PPI, PCE): higher = often rate-pressure.
ISM PMI > 50 = expansion (often bullish).
Jobless claims up = fewer jobs (often bearish).
NFP up = more jobs (often bullish).
Different reports push markets through different channels. This page shows the usual “first-reaction” logic, plus the most common caveat: good growth can still be bad if it forces higher rates.
PMI: new orders, employment, prices paid
Jobs: NFP, wages, unemployment rate
Inflation: core (ex-food/energy), trend, surprises vs expectation
Click any report to read what it measures, why markets care, and the most common bullish/bearish interpretation.
These are common patterns. Exact release dates can shift with holidays and calendar quirks.
| Report | Frequency | Typical timing | Usually moves | Quick note |
|---|
Adjust employment and rate stance to see the typical chain reaction into inflation pressure, recession risk, and market behavior.
If the Fed leans hard toward inflation focus, rates usually rise, inflation cools, and recession risk can climb. If the Fed leans toward jobs focus, rates usually fall, growth can improve, and inflation risk can creep up.
Quick definitions for the abbreviations in your notes.