ISM Manufacturing PMI
What it measures: Factory activity across new orders, jobs, production.
Bullish: Above 50 and rising, strong new orders.
Bearish: Below 50 and falling, weak new orders.
Economic Reports at a Glance
Use this as a quick reference. “Bullish” generally means supportive of growth or risk‑assets. “Bearish” often signals slowing growth or tighter financial conditions.
ISM Services PMI
What it measures: Service‑sector growth in business activity, employment, prices.
Bullish: Above 50 with rising business activity.
Bearish: Below 50, falling employment/prices paid.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
What it measures: Monthly change in U.S. jobs (ex‑farm).
Bullish: Strong job gains with stable inflation.
Bearish: Weak or negative job growth.
Unemployment Rate
What it measures: Share of labor force without jobs.
Bullish: Falling or low unemployment without wage pressure.
Bearish: Rising unemployment.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
What it measures: Inflation at the consumer level.
Bullish: Cooling inflation trends.
Bearish: Hotter‑than‑expected inflation.
PCE Price Index
What it measures: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Bullish: Softening headline/core PCE.
Bearish: Re‑acceleration in core PCE.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
What it measures: Input‑cost inflation for producers.
Bullish: Moderating cost pressures.
Bearish: Rising input costs.
Retail Sales
What it measures: Consumer spending at retailers.
Bullish: Steady, broad‑based growth.
Bearish: Sharp declines or weak discretionary spending.
Durable Goods Orders
What it measures: Big‑ticket business/consumer investment.
Bullish: Rising orders, especially ex‑transport.
Bearish: Persistent declines in core orders.
Jobless Claims
What it measures: Weekly filings for unemployment benefits.
Bullish: Claims trending lower.
Bearish: Claims trending higher.
GDP (Advance)
What it measures: Broad economic growth (q/q annualized).
Bullish: Solid growth with balanced inflation.
Bearish: Contraction or sharp slowdown.
Balance of Trade
What it measures: Exports minus imports.
Bullish: Improving balance from rising exports.
Bearish: Widening deficit from weak exports.
Housing Starts
What it measures: New residential construction activity.
Bullish: Rising starts and permits.
Bearish: Falling starts and permits.
Consumer Confidence
What it measures: Household expectations for the economy.
Bullish: Confidence rising, spending intent up.
Bearish: Confidence falling sharply.
The Fed’s Dual Mandate (Interactive)
The Federal Reserve aims for maximum employment and price stability. Move the slider to explore how shifting emphasis can affect policy and the economy.
Price Stability
Maximum Employment
Inflation Focus
Employment Focus
Likely Stance
Neutral / Data‑dependent
Potential Effects
- Rates steady, watch incoming inflation and job data
- Markets price a balanced risk outlook
This page is educational and simplifies complex dynamics. Markets react to the magnitude of change, trend direction, and how data compare to consensus expectations.